tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.comments2009-06-18T21:20:25.592-05:00John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-188072631747339212009-06-16T08:56:55.832-05:002009-06-16T08:56:55.832-05:00Thank you for your comments and may you enjoy great success at UBS.<br /><br />I would simply add on SYY that the current environment is the downside for Sysco - and that down side involves positive earnings, positive cash flow, and increasing its competitive advantage. This is a great company for those who are patient.<br /><br />As for Jeff&#39;s comment: I&#39;m less concerned about growth. Many companies have produced fine long term results with modest volume growth. It is important to realize that the U.S. population will continue to grow and that rising standards of living translate into more people eating at resteraunts. This provides sufficient long term growth for the industry for Sysco to grow earnings and dividends fast enough to outperform the S&amp;P 500 in terms of total return.David A Boothnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-76194887574183738252009-05-28T15:18:22.027-05:002009-05-28T15:18:22.027-05:00Hey John, congrats on your new post. When you get situated, give me a call and let me know the details. Doug MacKay @ Broadleaf.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-86586037317873606082009-05-22T15:41:17.387-05:002009-05-22T15:41:17.387-05:00I have enjoyed reading the blog as well, good luck and congratulations!<br /><br />JeffAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-73438104175784349992009-05-19T17:55:30.023-05:002009-05-19T17:55:30.023-05:00HI John, Wishing you all the best with the new position. I've enjoyed reading the blog. Good luck.g3bareheadhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14977310496350771443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-57060656685606732292009-05-11T12:10:00.000-05:002009-05-11T12:10:00.000-05:00Just wanted to circle back and say thanks for sharing your thoughts. I have SYY on my buy list but am hoping to see a correction in the overall market that takes SYY down a bit. <br /><br />JeffAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-20548162271398825332009-05-10T22:45:00.000-05:002009-05-10T22:45:00.000-05:00I have seen good things with OMX lately. How do you feel about Office Max as a long-term investment?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-30062832311191722672009-05-06T09:59:00.000-05:002009-05-06T09:59:00.000-05:00They say that they have about 16% of a $231 billion market. However, that depends on how you define the market. I've seen estimates as high as $400 billion. Of course, much of that business may not be a good fit for Sysco, but in any case I believe they can grow domestic share for quite a while.<br /><br />They have a significant presence in Canada with over 20 distribution centers. They recently announced the acquisition of a foodservice distributor in Ireland, which I believe is their first move outside of North America. However, they do have a small subsidiary called International Food Group which ships product to over 120 countries, primarily to service international chain customers. <br /><br />Management said recently that while their primary focus is North America, they continue to explore and stay abreast of international acquisition opportunities.John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-18815062006518980262009-05-06T09:49:00.000-05:002009-05-06T09:49:00.000-05:00The latest 10K provides this breakdown of sales: Restaurants 63%, Hospitals and nursing homes 10%, Schools and colleges 5%, Hotels and motels 6%, and Other 16%. Most of the restaurant category is represented by independents and small chains, but a significant part is made up of large chain restaurants. The largest customer by revenue is the Wendy's chain, which made up 5% of fy2008 revenue, and a smaller percentage of profits.<br /><br />The broadline restaurant business produces the highest margins and highest share of total operating income. However, it also has higher expenses due to greater delivery costs, bad debt expense, sales commission expense, etc.John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-85260064543060574872009-05-05T22:39:00.000-05:002009-05-05T22:39:00.000-05:00Sysco is interesting, they have a nice dividend that has grown consistently over the years, which is something I like. They are also very strong financially which is important now more than ever. <br /><br />I am wondering however, do they still have plenty of room to grow in the US and Canada? I know the industry is huge (200b?) but can they really continue to gain market share or will they start getting to the point where they can only grow as fast as the underlying market?<br /><br />Are there any plans to expand overseas that you know of?<br /><br />Thanks for any insights. <br /><br />JeffAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-6256077486505199952009-05-05T18:54:00.000-05:002009-05-05T18:54:00.000-05:00Do you know how Sysco's sales break down by customer type (i.e., high-end restaurants, chains, etc.) -- or something like that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-20392313910720731632009-05-05T12:30:00.000-05:002009-05-05T12:30:00.000-05:00I don't have any special insight. It's having a good day today (+11% as I write this). But it's not the kind of stock that I would buy-- far too speculative. That doesn't mean that it can't double or triple or more. You can make (or lose) a lot of money bottom-fishing in stocks like this. It's just not my style.John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-84865713163985817172009-05-05T10:42:00.000-05:002009-05-05T10:42:00.000-05:00What do you think of PIR?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-64104904615360863092009-04-07T23:44:00.000-05:002009-04-07T23:44:00.000-05:00Although it wasn't exactly written yesterday, I thought this was a relevant and interesting article on the trouble Warren Buffet is having with some of his companies:<BR/><BR/>http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-explains-how-the-bailout-is-crushing-healthy-companies-2009-3maabutallhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06841039642234480052noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-80001229469714485722009-03-27T21:28:00.000-05:002009-03-27T21:28:00.000-05:00Pictures say so much, so well. I enjoy using them too. DM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-7618765532920944562009-03-26T12:21:00.000-05:002009-03-26T12:21:00.000-05:00How about a sidebar with all the names (tickers and full name) in your core portfolio?AJLhttp://blog.ajlisy.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-89364414107818723442009-03-12T22:06:00.000-05:002009-03-12T22:06:00.000-05:00And here I thought the real reason for the rally was that you kept saying it was going to go up (eventually) ...SMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-54129821232880585862009-03-08T17:39:00.000-05:002009-03-08T17:39:00.000-05:00George McGovern? You were 17...Bullhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03013387488773338626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-44123421167261721652009-03-03T21:16:00.000-06:002009-03-03T21:16:00.000-06:00the portfolio moves all represent moving cash into stocks. they're real investments of my own money in one specific account (not some paper or theoretical portfolio). Here's what I wrote on Jan 4:<BR/><BR/>"I'm currently about 33% invested in my high-quality portfolio, with the balance in cash. I've been looking for a chance to add to those positions and start a few others, but the market's runup in the past two weeks has taken most of them beyond my target buy points. If the market goes straight up from here, I'll miss an opportunity (although I do have more equity exposure in my retirement accounts). If a new bull market has already begun, I'm willing to take the chance that I'm underinvested. I could easily see more downside, and real losses are more painful than missed gains."<BR/><BR/>Since Jan 4, my equity allocation has risen from about 33% to probably the upper 40s. I'm intentionally not being too specific because I don't want to get into the quarterly performance vs benchmark game. My idea is to buy good quality stocks on (plus an occasional GE or NYT)on weakness and hold them for three to five years. Anyone who follows this blog over time will be able to get a very good idea of how my stock selection has worked out.<BR/><BR/>Hope that helps.John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-57462559213406402742009-03-03T20:54:00.000-06:002009-03-03T20:54:00.000-06:00I was speaking about your blog with a friend of mine, and she brought up a good point -- when you talk about entering new positions, are you putting cash to work or are you re-allocating assets away from other investments like mutual funds, other stocks, etc?A. Jonathanhttp://www.freeagentnet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-43003473092615305792009-03-02T11:09:00.000-06:002009-03-02T11:09:00.000-06:00Perhaps apropos:<BR/><BR/>"What’s a Liberal?<BR/>A Conservative Mugged by Wall Street."AJLhttp://www.freeagentnet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-42088525871158604332009-03-01T20:18:00.000-06:002009-03-01T20:18:00.000-06:00good question. It was interesting to see that, when the news of the dividend cut broke on Friday afternoon, the stock initially spiked up but then settled back to close within pennies of where it was before the news hit. That tells me that a dividend cut had been fully priced in and was well expected. Same is probably true of a ratings cut. I'll probably look to tiptoe into more GE in the coming week. However, it's sort of an outlier in my portfolio (like NYT) because of its questionable balance sheet.John Lisynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-85722794564167069802009-03-01T18:04:00.000-06:002009-03-01T18:04:00.000-06:00No comment on GE's dividend cut?SMMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-35628612142342038092009-02-28T10:54:00.000-06:002009-02-28T10:54:00.000-06:00Wow...John Lisy admitting a "liberal bias". Has the sky fallen down? Has hell frozen over? To what do you attribute your side-switching??Andrewhttp://www.freeagentnet.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-70719287565846133742009-02-03T20:13:00.000-06:002009-02-03T20:13:00.000-06:00broad index funds are fine when you're in a broad bull market-- everything works. I don't think that's the case now, and as you mention it may not ever be the same.<BR/><BR/>I'm less opposed to the SPY than to the more exotic ETFs, but even with SPY you get 10% exposure to financials and a passel of other stocks that you'd probably never consider buying individually. That seems to be a high price to pay for diversification. <BR/><BR/>Ultimately, most people who buy index funds do so because they believe that the stock market is going to rise in value. Given the experience of the past ten years, I'd have to ask why they believe that. I'm certainly not a bear, but the buy and hold stocks for the long term era is over.John Lisyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03956731166448203627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8626688143589029941.post-26849728041055199042009-02-03T06:48:00.000-06:002009-02-03T06:48:00.000-06:00John<BR/><BR/>I would like to thank you for all of your guidance and support during my years at ML. You are one of the best managers in the business, always there for your colleagues to support them in everyway. I do miss you my friend and hope that someday soon we work together again.<BR/><BR/>Dawn K.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com